Put the radar gun down for a minute. While baseball’s attention is locked on triple-digit heat, the Red Sox have a 5-foot-11 right-hander in Double-A Portland who is quietly turning into one of the most intriguing arms in the organization. Jedixson Paez won’t overpower anyone. Instead, he’s frustrating hitters at a ridiculous clip. With the Eastern League playoffs approaching and a major Rule 5 Draft decision hanging over Boston’s front office, the 21-year-old’s value has never been higher. Here’s the deep dive on what the Sox truly have in this crafty young pitcher.
The 2026 Breakout: A Season of Adjustments
If you haven’t checked the Portland Sea Dogs box scores since June, you’re missing out. Paez earned his promotion from High-A Greenville in late June and hasn’t slowed down, posting a combined 3.42 ERA with a tiny 1.12 WHIP across 23 starts. The most encouraging stat here? A career-low 5.8% walk rate since arriving in Double-A. The stiffer competition didn’t rattle him - it sharpened him.
His defining outing came on August 23 against the Somerset Patriots. Paez fired 7 innings of 1-hit ball with 8 strikeouts, earning Eastern League Pitcher of the Week honors and locking in his status as a playoff-ready arm. He also owns a 51.3% ground-ball rate this season, a major jump from 44% a year ago. He’s pitching with intent, attacking the zone, and keeping everything down. This isn’t a guy just happy to be here; it’s a guy forcing his way into the big-league conversation.
📊 3.42 ERA / 1.12 WHIP across 23 starts in 2026 - Paez has been dominant since his late-June promotion, proving he belongs at Double-A.
| Level | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-A | 2.98 | 1.08 | 8.9 | 6.1% |
| Double-A | 3.71 | 1.15 | 8.4 | 5.8% |
| Combined | 3.42 | 1.12 | 8.6 | 5.9% |
The Arsenal: New Wrinkles, Same Elite Bender
Let’s get into the stuff, because that’s where the story gets fun. Paez isn’t just a soft-tosser; he’s a tactician with a refreshed pitch mix. His fastball sits 92-94 mph - solid enough - but the real knockout punch remains that devastating low-70s curveball that leaves hitters swinging at air.
According to recent notes from Baseball America, Paez has added a cutter (88-91 mph) to his repertoire in 2026. That’s the secret weapon. The cutter has opened up the entire left side of the plate and lines up directly with that surge in ground balls. He’s no longer a two-pitch guy; he’s now sequencing three distinct looks with plus command. The raw stuff might read as “average,” but the pitchability and his ability to manipulate the zone scream mid-rotation starter upside.
| Pitch | Velocity | Usage | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 92-94 mph | 45% | 55 (Above Avg) |
| Curveball | Low 70s | 30% | 65 (Plus) |
| Cutter | 88-91 mph | 25% | 55 (Above Avg) |
The Waiting Game: The Rule 5 Clock is Ticking
Here’s where urgency creeps into the front office. Fresh off clinching a playoff spot with Portland, Paez now faces the biggest off-field test of his career. He sits at #9 overall in the system per SoxProspects.com, but rankings don’t shield you from the Rule 5 Draft. With the deadline to add him to the 40-man roster set for November 19, 2026, Boston has a call to make.
📊 5.8% walk rate since Double-A promotion - The best control mark of his career, proving his command translates against advanced hitters.
Paez is slated for one final regular-season start on September 6 before the Eastern League playoffs kick off. The Red Sox coaching staff has him on a strict five-day schedule, fully healthy, and ready for high-leverage postseason innings. The front office is tracking his workload closely, weighing whether he’s major-league ready or if they risk losing him in the draft. A strong playoff run forces Boston’s hand to protect him. A stumble, though, and they might gamble on sneaking him through waivers.
